2019-20 Edmonton Oilers Season Thread - Another Year of Stockholm Syndrome

[OK14]

Preseason opens with a 2-0 shutout win. Meaningless in the standings...yet inspiring to gullible Oilers fans everywhere.

[nafnikufesin]

If nothing else, it will make our complaints about the Eskimos seem more petty. By the end of October, at least the playoffs will still be a possibility for the Eskimos.

[PDO]

It's just preseason but this is the most structure I've seen the Oilers play with in a very long time. Tippet has consistently impressed me since his hire.

[OK14]

It's just preseason but

The four most dangerous words of Oiler fandom...

[Deathsdoorstep]

The Oilers bottom 6 was the worst in the history of the modern NHL last year as far as goal scoring goes. I like the competition that Holland has brought in to address that problem in the short-term.

If the Oilers get 15 more goals from the bottom 6 over an 82 game season and 20 goals from Neal then that's 28 more goals than last year. That puts them at about 260 goals. I don't expect playoffs, but they will be better than last year for sure.

[bone]

The Oilers bottom 6 was the worst in the history of the modern NHL last year as far as goal scoring goes. I like the competition that Holland has brought in to address that problem in the short-term.

If the Oilers get 15 more goals from the bottom 6 over an 82 game season and 20 goals from Neal then that's 28 more goals than last year. That puts them at about 260 goals. I don't expect playoffs, but they will be better than last year for sure.

If they can achieve what you mention and have the guys at least middle of the pack penalty killing this team can play meaningful hockey up to the deadline at least. Throw in a little luck or a prolonged hot streak for a goalie, you never know.

Safe money is still on them being in the bottom 3 of the West, but I can at least see realistic situations that may push them into the top 10.

[Angelus]

Guys, their goalies are Mike Smith and Mikko Koskinen.

It doesn't matter what their bottom six does.

[nafnikufesin]

Guys, their goalies are Mike Smith and Mikko Koskinen.

It doesn't matter what their bottom six does.

[bone]

Guys, their goalies are Mike Smith and Mikko Koskinen.

It doesn't matter what their bottom six does.

Boo. The truth does hurt though.

[PDO]

Guys, their goalies are Mike Smith and Mikko Koskinen.

It doesn't matter what their bottom six does.

Maybe Mike Smith can get another concussion and just black out like Will Ferrell in Old School?

[Deathsdoorstep]

Guys, their goalies are Mike Smith and Mikko Koskinen.

It doesn't matter what their bottom six does.

Mike Smith had a bad year last year at .898. His previous 4 seasons were .916, .914, .916 and .904. Koskinen was .906 last year. It's not going to be as bad as you think.

[PDO]

.904 and .906 are also terrible in the year 2019.

Last year the 30th best Save % in the NHL was .913.

There's no reason to expect 30 year old goalies to get better.

[stamphater]

.904 and .906 are also terrible in the year 2019.

Last year the 30th best Save % in the NHL was .913.

There's no reason to expect 30 year old goalies to get better.

Interesting as Ben Bishop and Jaro Halak both had significant jump in their save percentage. Now granted, better defense but Smith is not far remove from looking damn good with the Flames for a good portion of 2017-18 before his injury. I certainly had my questions if Smith would ever get a look as a number one last season but I assume his playoff performance brought some hope back.

All that said...one or both of those guys need to step up. And hopefully combined with some bloody defensive zone coverage - which this team has been terrible at forever - we can at least have a sniff come March.

[Hugoagogo]

Okay... I don't follow hockey like I used to, so (as the kids say ) don't @ me on this one, but hearing that they are considering making Gagner play his opposite wing on the second line makes me wonder if Magnus Paajarvi is worth giving a call for a PTO? I'm just thinking that if Gagner is gonna play top six left wing, we must really be hurting for left wingers. Paajarvi made 900k last year.
Thanks in advance for your kind replies not ridiculing my suggestions

[bone]

Okay... I don't follow hockey like I used to, so (as the kids say ) don't @ me on this one, but hearing that they are considering making Gagner play his opposite wing on the second line makes me wonder if Magnus Paajarvi is worth giving a call for a PTO? I'm just thinking that if Gagner is gonna play top six left wing, we must really be hurting for left wingers. Paajarvi made 900k last year.
Thanks in advance for your kind replies not ridiculing my suggestions

Gagner has more career goals than Paajarvi has points despite being only two years older. Don't think Paajarvi brings anything that the rest of the auditioning cast doesn't already bring.

Right now, I think Tippett has decided on pairs being Leon-Connor and RNH-Neal and is going to do a bunch of mix and matching in the meantime to see what sticks, with Kassian getting first dibs at Leon and Connor's wingman. Gagner got his one game, and Nygard practiced with RNH-Neal today suggesting he may get a shot with them either tomorrow or Friday.

[Hugoagogo]

Good points. Thanks.

[Deathsdoorstep]

.904 and .906 are also terrible in the year 2019.

Last year the 30th best Save % in the NHL was .913.

There's no reason to expect 30 year old goalies to get better.

2.7 goals on 30 shots or 2.2 goals on 30 shots.

the difference is that you have to withstand one more shot per game. So their Oilers need to prevent one fewer shots per game.

It's not going to be as bad as you think.

Especially with the structure you admit is now there in front of the goal.

[PDO]

Interesting as Ben Bishop and Jaro Halak both had significant jump in their save percentage. Now granted, better defense but Smith is not far remove from looking damn good with the Flames for a good portion of 2017-18 before his injury. I certainly had my questions if Smith would ever get a look as a number one last season but I assume his playoff performance brought some hope back.

All that said...one or both of those guys need to step up. And hopefully combined with some bloody defensive zone coverage - which this team has been terrible at forever - we can at least have a sniff come March.

It certainly could happen, but you and I both know those guys are outliers, not the normal.

Maybe we get lucky and Smith still gives us the one month of being incredible he generally has and Mikko does take a step forward, but it's a tough sell to bank on either, never mind both.

2.7 goals on 30 shots or 2.2 goals on 30 shots.

the difference is that you have to withstand one more shot per game. So their Oilers need to prevent one fewer shots per game.

It's not going to be as bad as you think.

Especially with the structure you admit is now there in front of the goal.

The result is that this group of eight was flat year-over-year, going from -0.79 goals per 100 shots in their platform season to -0.82 goals per 100 shots the following year. That fits with Koskinen’s KHL history, where his numbers were good but not overwhelming. The smart money then is on Koskinen next year being what he was this past season: a reasonable No. 1B goalie.

That probably makes Koskinen the starter by default. Smith, his competition, allowed -1.71 goals per 100 shots relative to Natural Stat Trick’s expected goals model, and most of his historical comparables got worse rather than better. If Koskinen plays two-thirds of the schedule, Smith the remaining third and both repeat their numbers from last year, the Oilers will be down 20-25 goals at 5-on-5 before even factoring in the rest of the roster.

From Willis at the Athletic.

That is a massive hole and there's all kinds of research that team D doesn't effect SV% but just shot share. I was also referring to the breakout more than the defensive structure which is much harder to judge this early.

Don't get me wrong - I'd love if Mikko could come in and play .920 hockey this year - but it's only fair to point out that it's a bad bet.

[Angelus]

It's not going to be as bad as you think.

You must be a new Oiler fan or something.

[Deathsdoorstep]

You must be a new Oiler fan or something.

I didn't say that they would make the playoffs, mate. I'm just saying they will be better than last year. Not better enough to make the post-season, but I'm not going to write them off before the season even begins. They have a new, competent GM and a new, competent coach.

[PDO]

Since Nik Lidstrom retired in 2012 and back loaded contracts were outlawed, Detroit won exactly as many playoff rounds as the Edmonton Oilers in the same time frame. Ken Holland did some great things 20 years ago but his recent track record is not good and the early returns in Edmonton aren't promising either.

I'll hope for the best, and I really do like Tippet a lot at this point, but I suspect it'll turn out like always.

[eskfan152]

So Koskinen lets in a softie on his first shot faced. Might we see a 4 million dollar goalie in Bakersfield? Thanks Pete.

[Angelus]

Koskinen sucks and Smith is worse. Long season ahead.

[PDO]

Koskinen sucks and Smith is worse. Long season ahead.

Could've had James Reimer at 50% for Brandon Manning but noooooooooope

[tigerdar]

So this is a serious question - I do like to bet a bit on sports but I'm no expert with hockey so I tend to do my serious betting on football (ncaa mostly) and just throw a few "fun bets" on hockey. Seeing how nearly every oilers game is on tv this would be a fun one for me to follow. I'd like to get the opinions of some of the more serious hockey fans (Angelus especially but other that follow as well)
2019/20 Points OVER/UNDER: 85.5
Over or under?
Thank you for your time.

[nafnikufesin]

So this is a serious question - I do like to bet a bit on sports but I'm no expert with hockey so I tend to do my serious betting on football (ncaa mostly) and just throw a few "fun bets" on hockey. Seeing how nearly every oilers game is on tv this would be a fun one for me to follow. I'd like to get the opinions of some of the more serious hockey fans (Angelus especially but other that follow as well)
2019/20 Points OVER/UNDER: 85.5
Over or under?
Thank you for your time.

For reference, in the past 11 seasons, they have only been over once. They had a hot goalie that season, and a lot of things went right for them. They have not really upgraded anywhere on their roster since last season; they have either stayed the same or in a few cases actually downgraded. The hope is that some of the kids on the farm catch fire and we improve from within...the same kids that really haven't done much in three preseason games and most of whom have already been reassigned back to the minors as of this morning.

Can they go over? It's possible, if a lot of things go right, and nothing goes wrong.

Under is a pretty safe bet.

[Section N]

So this is a serious question - I do like to bet a bit on sports but I'm no expert with hockey so I tend to do my serious betting on football (ncaa mostly) and just throw a few "fun bets" on hockey. Seeing how nearly every oilers game is on tv this would be a fun one for me to follow. I'd like to get the opinions of some of the more serious hockey fans (Angelus especially but other that follow as well)
2019/20 Points OVER/UNDER: 85.5
Over or under?
Thank you for your time.

Most definitely the under. You're welcome for my time.

[Deathsdoorstep]

So this is a serious question - I do like to bet a bit on sports but I'm no expert with hockey so I tend to do my serious betting on football (ncaa mostly) and just throw a few "fun bets" on hockey. Seeing how nearly every oilers game is on tv this would be a fun one for me to follow. I'd like to get the opinions of some of the more serious hockey fans (Angelus especially but other that follow as well)
2019/20 Points OVER/UNDER: 85.5
Over or under?
Thank you for your time.

Just under, at 84.

[Angelus]

So this is a serious question - I do like to bet a bit on sports but I'm no expert with hockey so I tend to do my serious betting on football (ncaa mostly) and just throw a few "fun bets" on hockey. Seeing how nearly every oilers game is on tv this would be a fun one for me to follow. I'd like to get the opinions of some of the more serious hockey fans (Angelus especially but other that follow as well)
2019/20 Points OVER/UNDER: 85.5
Over or under?
Thank you for your time.

I would probably go under at that number but it's close. They hit 79 last season and can Tippett improve them by 6-7 points? Maybe. I'd still go under because of the goaltending and because you are unlikely to see 97/29/93 all have career years again.

[PDO]

I don't see much value in that #.

If Carolina is still floating around 97 points and -140 to make the playoffs that's a much better bet. (over and yes)